On Friday, September 25, Douglas Margerum told KEYT that his team at Margerum Wine Company was finishing harvest that day. In a typical year, that Friday is when local growers would be starting. He said picking began in very early August, some growers started in July, and one Santa Barbara County vintner picked sparkling wine grapes in June. He called that "absolutely unheard of."
That's the version of 2026 most people have heard: the earliest wine grape harvest anyone in the county can remember. The fuller version matters more on Refugio Road than in Lompoc or Santa Maria. The early start was set months before summer, and the warm middle of the Santa Ynez Valley felt it far less than the cool coastal appellations did.
A calendar that started in winter
Will Henry of Lumen Wines farms in the Santa Maria Valley. He was picking during his 15th harvest there, the earliest he has seen, and he says summer heat wasn't the cause. "Oddly, the growing season has been fairly even and normal," he told the Santa Barbara Independent. In his account, summer-like weather in January and February woke the vines from dormancy nearly a month early. "That set their time clock ahead and led to early flowering, fruit set, and hence an early harvest."
Here is how that head start played out, in order:
- January and February: warm weather pushes budbreak ahead by nearly a month, per Henry. Margerum also puts budbreak in February and says it usually comes at least a month later.
- June: a county vintner picks grapes for sparkling wine.
- August 21: the Independent reports cool-climate producers in the Sta. Rita Hills and Santa Maria Valley far ahead of schedule.
- August 24: winemaker Jon Berlin of Chasing Ether picks chenin blanc at Star Lane in Happy Canyon, a vineyard farmed by Taylor Jones.
- August 25: Brave & Maiden plans its first sauvignon blanc pick.
- September 7: Berlin finishes his 2026 harvest with riesling from Pat Wirz's Cienega Valley vineyard.
- Mid-September: Henry expects to be done in both vineyard and winery.
- September 25: Margerum Wine Company's final day.
The dates near Santa Ynez in that list are the late-August ones. They are early, but they aren't extreme.
What the ocean record says about El Niño
Margerum told KEYT that El Niño had "affected this vintage tremendously" and tied it to the February budbreak. Federal forecasters dated things a little differently. On January 8, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had a La Niña Advisory in effect and said La Niña conditions were continuing. The center reported neutral conditions in its April and May discussions. It didn't declare El Niño until June 11, saying conditions had developed "over the past month."
By NOAA's timeline, then, the warm January and February that started the season came before El Niño did. That fits Henry's explanation better: an unusually mild winter, followed by a fairly ordinary spring and summer. El Niño was in place for the summer ripening months, so it may still have shaped how the fruit finished. The early start, though, came before NOAA declared it.
El Niño also matters for what comes next. The June discussion said conditions were expected to strengthen into the 2026–27 winter and put the chance of a very strong event during November through January at 63 percent. That's a forecast, not an outcome. Still, the coming winter is the one more likely to carry an El Niño signal into the valley, and that signal will reach the vines while they are dormant and coming out of it.
Why the valley floor kept closer to its own schedule
The Independent's August survey found the clearest split by geography. The Sta. Rita Hills and Santa Maria Valley looked "remarkably early," while warmer areas around Ballard Canyon, Los Olivos and Happy Canyon "aren't quite so advanced." Ernst Storm makes wine in the cool appellations and also tracks warmer ones for clients. He found the warmer sites "a bit more typical," and said "it is weird that some AVAs and varietals are way ahead with others tracking more normal."
Brave & Maiden makes the point most clearly for Santa Ynez. Wynne Sargeant, in what the Independent called "the warmer heart of the Santa Ynez Valley," set her first sauvignon blanc pick for August 25, about two weeks earlier than usual. A two-week lead is a far cry from June sparkling picks or a harvest ending on the usual opening day. Sargeant's comments show the valley floor ran on summer heat rather than the winter head start alone:
"Healthy foliage is helping us weather this consistent heat, but these long, hot days are causing rapid ripening. Acidity is still high, even though we have seen some warmer evenings."
In the cool districts, a month-early budbreak simply moved the whole season up by a month. In the warm middle of the valley, Sargeant describes steady heat and long days pushing ripening along, which left the overall timing closer to a normal year. Berlin's Star Lane pick in Happy Canyon on August 24 lines up with Brave & Maiden's date almost exactly. He also named Star Lane, together with Los Alamos, as his most textural chenin sources this year.
Margerum explains the county's usual pattern through its geography. The valleys open directly to the ocean, which produces what he calls "a incredible maritime influence." Days can reach 85 or 90 degrees and nights drop to 45 or 50, which slows ripening and extends hang time. He also said the last five vintages were the coldest on record. Peter Stolpman, who farms in Ballard Canyon, made a similar point. He said the previous three years had been "cool and late," which left growers "at the mercy of Mother Nature to ripen before dormancy." Measured against those years, an ordinary calendar would already have counted as early.
Lighter crops and a compressed cellar
Yields varied about as widely as timing. Storm reported cool-climate yields as much as 40 percent below normal and said vine age was playing a big role. Stolpman's vineyard was running about a month early with a crop roughly 25 percent lighter, which he welcomed because it gave him "full strategic latitude to decide when to pick." Henry expected close to average yields. At Alma Rosa Winery, winemaker Samra Morris described "smaller" clusters with "unusually uniform berry size" and numbers pointing toward "deep, rich color." She added that she was "just a little sad there won't be as much of it as we'd like." These were August impressions, given before most fermentations had started. They aren't final judgments on the vintage.
That makes a useful comparison with last year's official numbers. Santa Barbara County's 2025 crop report counted 10,649 harvested wine grape acres, down from 12,126 in 2024. Gross wine grape value still rose from $70.857 million to $87.793 million. The county credited the 24 percent increase to higher yields per acre and strong demand for high-quality grapes. In 2025, Pinot Noir averaged $3,167 a ton, Chardonnay $1,884 and Sauvignon Blanc $1,735. The 2026 growers' reports point to lighter crops in many vineyards, which is the opposite of the yield gains behind last year's increase. As of October 4, no countywide 2026 tonnage or price figures have been published.
The squeeze was also felt in the cellars. When ripening windows tighten, varieties come in closer together than usual. Morris said a crew that "knows these blocks intimately" lets Alma Rosa work "with precision rather than scrambling to catch up." At Samsara, Matt Brady was getting ready to bottle while still processing fruit, with barely enough tanks for both. Storm saw an upside. In a year like the last one, winemakers can be "stuck in their cellars through Thanksgiving," and in 2026, "the early start means we will finish early."
Harvest-season dates still ahead in October
With so much fruit already picked, the rest of the harvest calendar now falls mostly on the public gatherings. The Los Olivos Wine Festival is Saturday, October 10, at St. Mark's-in-the-Valley, with more than 20 Los Olivos wineries pouring. The Santa Barbara Vintners Festival follows on October 17 at Firestone Estate, with tastings from more than 70 wineries. The next day, Sunday, October 18, the Atterdag Village of Solvang Endowment holds its Harvest Party fundraiser at Gainey Vineyard on the Santa Ynez side of the valley.
Winemakers who usually spend these weekends between the crush pad and the barrel room will have far more of their 2026 wine already in tank and barrel by then than they would in a typical October.
Whether a vineyard parcel runs with the coastal appellations or with the warmer valley floor affects pick dates, crew scheduling and yield in years like this one. Central Coast Landmark Properties can help you look at those site-level differences on vineyard and ranch land across the Santa Ynez Valley. Request a private consultation and market assessment.
